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Friday, June 21, 2024

Slightly Higher Inflation Readings, Lower Consumer Sentiment

Key Takeaways:

  • The Core PCE Price Index came in at 2.8% year-over-year, and above the 2.6% consensus.
  • The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April came in at 77.2, lower than both the previous reading of 79.4 and the consensus expectation of 77.8.
  • The latest economic data released on April 26, 2024, increases the chance of no hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting on March 1, 2024.

Inflation Readings and Economic Data

The latest economic data released on April 26, 2024, increases the chance of no hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting on March 1, 2024. The Core PCE Price Index came in at 2.8% year-over-year, and above the 2.6% consensus. For month-over-month PCI data, it came in at 0.3%, matching the previous readings and consensus expectations. Inflation still remains around the same as it was last month, this could lead to the FED holding rates for longer.

The broader PCE Price Index showed a slight uptick, with the year-over-year figure at 2.7%, above consensus, and the month-over-month reading at 0.3%, matching the previous data and consensus.

Personal Income grew by 0.5% month-over-month in March, in line with the consensus and slightly higher than the previous reading of 0.3%. This income growth, coupled with a 0.8% increase in Personal Spending, suggests that consumers remain confident in their financial situation and are willing to spend, which could further contribute to inflation readings.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April came in at 77.2, lower than both the previous reading of 79.4 and the consensus expectation of 77.8. This decline could be due to the Israeli and US war, or the FED holding rates longer than expected, however, it could be too soon to tell.

CME and Market’s Reactions

The CME FedWatch tool currently shows an 88.6% probability of no interest rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

The S&P 500 is currently up 1% despite slightly higher inflation readings:

S&P 500 1-Minute Price Data

The DXY is in line with the economic data and is currently up 0.48%:

DXY 1-Minute Price Data

Bitcoin is currently down -0.96% since halving 6 days ago:

Bitcoin 1-Minute Price Data
Lazarus
Lazarushttps://ljlnews.com
Publisher and editor of LJLNews. I am a Stock Market enthusiast, with an interest for politics. I hope you enjoy reading the articles! Contact me at: Lazaruslucas@ljlnews.com

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